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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2019 8:38:01 GMT -7
Wanted to suggest some way of implementing player holdouts. I've seen it done in other contract leagues. My suggested rules (open for adjusting):
Every offseason, 3-5 teams will randomly face a player holdout.
The selected player will be chosen by the commissioner and will be a player who earns less than the average or is a top 10/5/3 player from the previous season that earns less than the average of the top 10/5/3 players at that position. The selected player will have 1-2 years left on their deal.
The team will not be able to start the player until a new deal is signed. They can also trade the player to a team that will give them the contract extension.
Not sure if this conflicts with the contract extension rule that's already in place, but I thought it would be something interesting to add another element of real GM'ing. Would likely be implemented for the 2020 offseason.
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Post by Cardinals GM (Blaine) on Jun 5, 2019 19:32:37 GMT -7
Wanted to suggest some way of implementing player holdouts. I've seen it done in other contract leagues. My suggested rules (open for adjusting): Every offseason, 3-5 teams will randomly face a player holdout. The selected player will be chosen by the commissioner and will be a player who earns less than the average or is a top 10/5/3 player from the previous season that earns less than the average of the top 10/5/3 players at that position. The selected player will have 1-2 years left on their deal. The team will not be able to start the player until a new deal is signed. They can also trade the player to a team that will give them the contract extension. Not sure if this conflicts with the contract extension rule that's already in place, but I thought it would be something interesting to add another element of real GM'ing. Would likely be implemented for the 2020 offseason. Can you lay out an example of how this would work? I’m having trouble grasping it  |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2019 11:47:07 GMT -7
Sorry for the delay. I haven't actually implemented it myself, but I could lay out an example using only RBs.
We must first establish a list of eligible players. The prime candidates for a holdout right now based on their current contract and their 2018 production are:
RB:
- Alvin Kamara, deal expires in 2020, finished 2018 as the RB4, and is the 60th highest paid RB
- James Conner, deal expires in 2020, finished 2018 as the RB7, and is the 66th highest paid RB
- Melvin Gordon, deal expires in 2019, finished 2018 as the RB8, and is the 37th highest paid RB
- Tarik Cohen, deal expires in 2020, finished 2018 as the RB9, and is the 71st highest paid RB
- Phillip Lindsay, deal expires in 2020, finished 2018 as the RB10, and is the 92nd highest paid RB
- Joe Mixon, deal expires in 2020, finished 2018 as the RB12, and is the 52nd highest paid RB
- Chris Carson, deal expires in 2020, finished 2018 as the RB17, and is the 89th highest paid RB
- Austin Ekeler, deal expires in 2019, finished 2018 as the RB19, and is the 99th highest paid RB
- Aaron Jones, deal expires in 2020, finished 2018 as the RB26, and is the 84th highest paid RB
Some time in the offseason (let's say July 1), we would randomly pick 1-2 of those guys to hold out. OR we could alternatively go player by player and assign them a probability of holding out so that any number of players end up holding out. We might be able to implement some sort of weight to the randomness of choosing the holdout. For example, the chances of Alvin Kamara holding out would be multiplied by 2 since his production and pay are so far apart whereas the chances of Joe Mixon holding out would be multiplied by .75 because there is less of a gap. In the player by player setting, this would give Kamara a 30% chance of holding out vs a 10% chance for Mixon.
So let's say it's just Mixon for this example. The Cowboys would have to either sign Mixon to a long term deal (3+ years) at a price commensurate with his 2018 production or trade him to a team that will sign him. He was the RB12, so he would demand to be paid as the RB12. The current RB12 in salary is a tie between McCoy, Zenner, and Anderson at $8M. Mixon will demand 10% higher than that price, so he will need to be paid at least $8.8M per year. The Cowboys will not be allowed to play Mixon until he gets his deal.
Optionally, we could also implement a random rule where holdout players cave in (i.e. give up on the holdout) with the chances of them caving increasing as the season wears on. Let's go back to our Mixon example. Let's say he begins his holdout on July 1st, 2019. Once a week, a number is randomly pulled to determine if he will cave or not. In July, the odds that Mixon caves are 1%. After each game (preseason and regular season), the odds that he caves slowly increases.
- After Preseason Wk 1, his odds are 5%
- After Preseason Wk 2, his odds are 7.5%
- After Preseason Wk 3, his odds are 10%
- After Preseason Wk 4, his odds are 15%
- After Reg Wk 1, his odds are 20%
- His odds increase by 5% each week until week 8, when they drop back to 0% (a la 2018 Le'Veon Bell)
Pretty much everything I've laid out is flexible. We can define strict conditions for holdout eligibility as opposed to me just eyeballing it. We can have more or fewer players hold out. We can have the player demand a higher or lower salary. We can use more drastic increasing odds of caving.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2019 12:17:22 GMT -7
So this is to assign a salary to a player that may or may not hold out? I still don't think I understand what this proposed Player Holdouts rule change is for or intended to do.
That is a very long and complicated process in trying to determine the contract salary and options for a player who may or may not hold out of OTAa/Training Camp before getting a new contract with their current NFL team or a new NFL team. I don't think I understood anything that was said after the list of the 9 prime candidate RBs.
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Post by Cardinals GM (Blaine) on Jun 13, 2019 13:45:35 GMT -7
Ok,
Thank you for the explanation.
I do understand the proposal.
Here’s my thoughts,
I’ll be honest -
I feel like it’s a little redundant to be honest. It is a little too much like a contract extension with a twist. I actually think the idea of it is pretty cool but I have so doubts as well.
First, I don’t want to have more than 1 extension, if we have more then it really waters down the free agent pool which in turn dials down action in the offseason.
My other thought is it’s a little complicated and to me honesty it’s too much work for me to manage.
Those concerns being said, I’m open to discussion if anyone else wants to chime in here.
I definitely appreciate the ideas, this is how we improve our league and I don’t want to discourage that.
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